On the Northern Front

For those of you following the news, you may be imagining scenes of war and bombing in Israel. But actually, in the majority of the country, it's life as usual.

Israelis tend to take situations like the current conflict along the country's border with Lebanon in stride. This isn't surprising considering that Israeli cities like Kiryat Shmona (along the Lebanese border) and Sderot (which sits alongside the Gaza strip) are regularly hit by falling rockets, gifts from our Hezbollah and Palestinian neighbors.

So in Haifa and on northward, people have been spending some time in the shelters – or "miklatem," as they are called in Hebrew. They have been instructed to stay close to protected areas and head for these shelters when sirens are heard.

But southward of Haifa on down to Tel Aviv, where the Home Front Command has issued a warning for the possibility of missile strikes, it is life as usual. Case in point, I don’t know where my neighborhood's bomb shelter is located. If I hear an air raid siren, I will simply go to the strongest walls in my apartment, the most inner walls, and hope for the best.

At work, they sent out an email telling employees that if they heard a siren, there was a shelter in the building's basement to which they could go. It may be disconcerting as far as the thought goes, but it still doesn't seem real. And honestly, after going through the night without hearing a siren, it seems more doubtful to me that missiles will reach Tel Aviv.

In last night's continually running news coverage, Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah's leader, broadcast his message "I have a surprise in store for Israel, we will reach south of Haifa just wait and see." My first thought was, "If it's going to happen, it will be tonight." But in the end, nothing came of his threats. So now it seems less likely to me.

One military analyst made a good point on yesterday's news – he said: "If Nasrallah could do it, he would've already." So, whether it's because the Israeli Air Force's bombardments of Hezbollah positions have destroyed their rocket launchers; or because Nasralla's afraid of the response (which seems less likely because he obviously doesn't care about Lebanese civilians and what happens to them, as the Hezbollah regularly uses them as human shields by positioning their launchers in residential areas), he hasn't launched any of those long range missiles. And by the way, yesterday Benjamin Netyanhu was interviewed on Britain's Sky News. He said we know that the Hezbollah has at least 12,000 missiles aimed at Israel. So how many has Nasrallah launched in total? 20? 30?

Watching Nasrallah speak, you can't help but admit – the guy is a master orator. I think he's playing a great manipulation game, and a great psychological game. He's so calm and focused, not 'fanatic' looking at all. And he knows how to use the media. He makes these veiled threats knowing they will be broadcast on Israeli news and scare the Israeli populace.

Meanwhile, to those who don't know any better, he comes across as a calm, normal human being who is simply protecting his people, rather than the fanatic who uses psychological warfare, PR – and his own people's casualties – to his benefit.

He knows what the world needs to see and hear to get them to say "how wrong of Israel" and there's no doubt he plans what he's going to say very carefully.

Hassan Nasrallah is clearly a very dangerous, cold and calculated individual. With someone like that heading an organization which has legitimate political recognition in Lebanon (Hezbollah holds seats in the Lebanese parliament); and with the Iranian and Syrian influence in Lebanon, I wonder whether a true peace with our northern neighbor will ever be possible.

Israel